What Will Move Markets on Thursday: Claims, Central Banks, and Quiet Divergences

Volatility looks sleepy on the surface, but the tape is far from risk-free.

Equity volatility is sitting in the mid-teens – the VIX has eased back toward the 16–17 zone after last month’s tariff-driven spike – while G7 FX implied volatility is trading near the bottom of its one-year range, around 7–7.5 on JPMorgan’s composite index. In other words, the market is priced for a smooth year-end.

Yet Thursday’s data stack is exactly the kind that can re-price expectations without any “big headline” on the calendar: US weekly claims, factory orders and GDPNow; a cluster of ECB speakers after upside inflation surprises; a stubbornly weak UK construction sector with a hawkish BoE voice; and contrasting stories in Canada, Sweden and Australia.

Below is how these pieces fit together – and where volatility is most likely to re-ignite.

1. Volatility & Sentiment: Calm Surface, Fragile Undercurrent

Before going country-by-country, it is worth anchoring the risk backdrop.

• Equity vol: The VIX has fallen from above 20 during November’s tariff shock back down to the mid-teens, with recent closes around 16–17. This signals a return to “comfortable” risk taking, but not the ultra-low regime of 2021–2022.
• FX vol: G7 FX implied vol remains compressed, with most one-month vols trading well below the 20th percentile of their 52-week range. This is the classic setup where a modest macro surprise can move currencies more than usual because options are cheap and positioning is relaxed.
• Macro stability vs. fragility: The IMF’s latest Global Financial Stability Report is clear: valuations are stretched, leverage pockets remain, and macro-financial shocks can still create outsized moves.

Into that backdrop, Thursday is a “hidden risk” session: the events look second-tier on paper, but they feed directly into the narratives that are currently suppressing volatility – soft-landing in the US, gradual disinflation in Europe, and a slow normalisation in commodity economies.

2. Asia–Pacific: Australia’s External Pulse and its Link to Risk

Australia – Trade Balance (Oct), 02:30

Australia’s October trade balance comes after a meaningful improvement in Q3:

• The goods trade surplus widened sharply in September to about A$3.94bn from roughly A$1.1bn in August, driven by a near-8% jump in exports versus just 1% growth in imports.
• At the same time, the overall current account slipped into a A$16.6bn deficit in Q3 as income outflows rose, despite favourable terms of trade.
• Recent GDP data show annual growth around the 2–2.1% area – the fastest in two years – with domestic demand doing the heavy lifting.

The twist: exports to China are structurally under pressure. Chinese customs data show Australian exports to China down about 10% in the first ten months of 2025 after a 9% drop in 2024, mainly due to a secular hit to iron ore demand from China’s property slump and rising competition from new supply (e.g., Simandou in Guinea).

How the print matters:

• A surplus clearly above the A$4.4bn consensus would reinforce the idea that Australia still enjoys an external cushion, even with China demand under strain.
• Combined with resilient GDP and sticky inflation, this keeps the Reserve Bank of Australia in a “higher for longer, not rushing to cut” stance.
• For FX, that supports AUD as a quality-carry candidate in a low-vol environment, particularly against lower-yielders like JPY and CHF.

On volatility: AUD crosses (especially AUD/JPY) are often used as leveraged risk-on expressions. A strong trade surplus would reaffirm that role, encouraging carry and potentially compressing AUD implied vol further – making the currency more vulnerable to any later risk-off shock.

3. Europe: Ultra-Low Swedish Inflation, Soft UK Construction and ECB Signalling

Sweden – CPI (Nov), 09:00

Swedish CPI has settled into a remarkably low regime:

• Headline CPI has been running at 0.9% year-on-year in October, unchanged from September and only slightly above expectations. Monthly inflation sat at 0.3%.
• CPIF (the Riksbank’s preferred measure) is also well below the 2% target, with deflationary forces from goods offsetting modest services inflation.

If November CPI again prints at or around 0.9% YoY, the message is: Sweden is one of the few advanced economies where inflation is decisively below target.

Macro / FX interpretation:

• The Riksbank has no urgency to keep real rates deeply positive; markets have already shifted toward expecting gradual normalisation (cuts) as long as the SEK does not collapse.
• If CPI undershoots 0.9%, SEK could soften as markets lean more dovish on rate expectations; a small overshoot might be ignored unless CPIF re-accelerates.

For volatility: SEK is not a global driver, but it is a live example of “post-inflation world” policy. Persistent sub-1% inflation in a small open economy reinforces the global narrative that the peak inflation shock is behind us – something that helps keep G7 FX vol contained for now.

Switzerland – procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (Nov), 10:30

Swiss manufacturing has been in contraction but improving:

• The PMI climbed from 46.3 in September to 48.2 in October, still below the 50 expansion threshold but clearly off the lows.

If November confirms a stabilisation around the high-40s:

• The SNB remains comfortable with a weak growth / low-inflation environment and will avoid any aggressive tightening.
• CHF retains its defensive reputation but with limited justification for fresh strength absent a global shock.

Market impact here is mostly relative: in a “low but improving” PMI scenario, EUR/CHF tends to find support as eurozone activity has accelerated faster than Swiss industry.

United Kingdom – Construction PMI (Nov) & Mann Speech

Construction PMI remains one of the softest points in the UK macro mix:

• The headline construction PMI fell to 44.1 in October from 46.2 in September – the tenth monthly contraction in a row, driven by ongoing housing and civil engineering weakness.

Consensus for November is around 44.3 – still deep in contraction territory.

At 14:45, BoE MPC member Catherine Mann speaks. She has been consistently on the hawkish wing of the Committee:

• In the November policy discussion she emphasised that “inflation persistence” is her central case, arguing that price dynamics are unlikely to follow the rapid deceleration shown in the central BoE projection and highlighting upside risks from wages and administered prices.

How the combination plays into GBP:

• Weak construction data underlines growth headwinds, especially in housing, and argues for caution on the demand side.
• Mann’s speech will lean in the opposite direction on policy: she is likely to warn again that inflation pressures are not fully under control.

That mix—weak real-economy data plus hawkish rhetoric—is typically:

• Bearish for UK rates at the front end (less room for cuts),
• Ambiguous for GBP: it can benefit from a higher-for-longer rate profile vs. EUR and JPY, but lose ground if investors focus on UK-specific growth risks.

On volatility: GBP is one of the few majors where one-month implied vol is not as depressed as peers – reflecting exactly this tension between persistent inflation and weak growth. A more aggressive-than-expected Mann could widen rate-spread volatility and push short-dated GBP option vols slightly higher while spot chops around.

Euro Area – ECB’s Lane and De Guindos

Although there is no hard data from the eurozone on Thursday, ECB communication fills that gap:

• Recent figures show eurozone inflation ticking back up to around 2.2% YoY in November, above the 2% target for the third consecutive month, with services inflation near 3.5% and core around 2.4%.
• At the same time, business activity has accelerated, with the eurozone composite PMI rising to roughly 52.8 in November – the fastest pace in 30 months – driven by a strong services rebound despite sluggish manufacturing.
• Chief economist Philip Lane has recently highlighted “upside surprises” in inflation and stressed that the ECB still needs further slowdown in non-energy inflation to be fully confident about convergence to target.

Lane speaks at 17:00, De Guindos at 20:00. Together, they will likely reinforce three ideas:

1. The hiking cycle is over, but cuts are not imminent.
2. Non-energy and wage-driven inflation remain too firm for an early easing.
3. The recent appreciation of the euro (over 12% vs. USD this year) is doing part of the disinflation work, and the ECB does not want to aggressively undercut that.

For EUR:

• A clearly hawkish tone (pushing back strongly on 2026 cut pricing) could support EUR against USD and JPY, especially if US data are neutral.
• A more balanced message that acknowledges upside inflation surprises but emphasises patience would keep EUR trading more as a cyclical asset tied to global risk sentiment rather than a pure rate-differential play.

Volatility impact: ECB speak alone rarely spikes vol when rates are on hold, but when FX implied vol is cheap, even a small repricing in rate expectations can generate decent swings in EUR crosses, especially EUR/CHF and EUR/GBP.

4. North America: US Claims, Factory Orders, GDPNow and Canada’s Twin Tests

United States – Jobless Claims, Factory Orders, GDPNow, Fedspeak

The US remains the anchor for global risk and volatility. Thursday’s run of data and speeches matters because it touches both the “soft landing” and “Fed cuts” narratives.

Labour market – Initial & Continuing Claims, 15:30

The recent story:

• Initial claims fell back toward 216–220k in mid-November, near seven-month lows and similar to late 2024, despite a wave of layoff announcements from large corporates.
• Continuing claims, however, have crept up to around 1.96 million – a post-pandemic high – suggesting that finding a new job is getting harder even if layoffs remain modest.

Market interpretation going into Thursday:

• A reading near the 216–220k area on initial claims keeps the “resilient labour market” narrative intact.
• A further rise in continuing claims would reinforce the idea of a gradual cooling – exactly the kind of adjustment that justifies gradual Fed easing without triggering panic.

Factory Orders (Sep), 17:00

Earlier guidance has already flagged a swing from a 1.3% decline to a projected 1.4% gain, mostly reflecting a rebound in durable goods and capital goods orders. A firm print would:

• Support the view that US manufacturing is stabilising rather than collapsing.
• Provide additional backing for the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Q4 tracking around 3.9% annualised.

GDPNow Q4 Update (17:30)

The GDPNow estimate has been steady at 3.9% over its last updates, following a strong rebound from a negative print in Q1.

• If the new update stays near 3.9%, markets will remain comfortable with a “growth still solid, inflation moderating” narrative – the classic soft landing.
• A meaningful downside surprise toward, say, the low-3s or below would jolt rate-cut expectations and could weigh on USD alongside yields.

Bowman Speech (19:00)

Fed Governor (and now Vice Chair for Supervision) Michelle Bowman has focused much more on regulatory issues recently than on short-term rate guidance.

Markets, however, will still parse her comments for any hints on:

• How the Fed reads the combination of moderating inflation, resilient growth, and rising continuing claims.
• Whether financial stability concerns – including earlier volatility in bonds and FX – argue for a more cautious or more proactive easing path.

Impact on USD, yields and vol:

• Base case (our view): Claims remain benign, factory orders rebound, GDPNow holds around 3.9%. That combination supports the idea of gradual Fed cuts against a strong growth backdrop – mildly negative for USD over the medium term but not enough to trigger a rush out of dollar assets.
• Volatility: In this base case, equity vol likely stays contained, and G7 FX vol remains suppressed. However, any downside shock to growth (weak orders and a large downward GDPNow revision) could quickly push VIX and USD vols higher from low starting points.

Canada – Trade Balance and Ivey PMI

Canada faces a twin test at 15:30 (trade balance) and 17:00 (Ivey PMI).

Trade balance (Sep)

• The goods trade deficit widened sharply to C$6.3bn in August from C$3.8bn, far above expectations, as exports underperformed.

A further large deficit would confirm:

• Canada is more reliant on foreign capital and vulnerable to global demand shifts than the US.
• The loonie (CAD) remains a “soft beta” to global risk – it struggles to fully share in risk-on rallies when domestic fundamentals lag.

Ivey PMI (Nov)

• The Ivey PMI dropped to 52.4 in October from 59.8 in September, still in expansion but signalling a clear deceleration.
• Employment within the Ivey survey actually improved modestly, but the overall tone was “slower growth with rising input prices”.

If November rebounds to around 53.6 as expected:

• It would support the idea that Canada is slowing but not falling into recession.
• For the Bank of Canada, that means less freedom to stay very restrictive: growth softness and trade deficits argue for earlier cuts than the Fed, as long as inflation metrics cooperate.

FX / vol implication:

• The CAD side of USD/CAD is fragile: on risk-off days it tends to underperform due to trade and growth concerns.
• In a benign US-data scenario, CAD may still lag AUD and NOK – the “stronger” commodity currencies – reflecting its weaker domestic profile.

5. Brazil: Secondary for G10, Important for EM Risk

Brazil’s Q3 GDP (14:00) is not a G10 driver, but it matters for EM sentiment and commodity beta:

• Annual growth ran at about 2.2% in Q2, and consensus expects another modest expansion in Q3, with agriculture a drag but services and industry holding up.

A print broadly in line with expectations:

• Confirms that Brazil is in a low-trend but stable growth regime.
• Supports carry trades in BRL in a world where rates remain high and inflation is under control.

For global volatility, Brazil’s data is a “confirmation piece” – it either confirms that EM is coping with higher global rates, or, if badly weak, raises questions about the sustainability of high-carry strategies.

6. What Is Most Likely to Shake Markets on Thursday?

Given this line-up and the current vol regime, three clusters stand out as potential volatility catalysts:

1) US Growth Combo: Claims + Factory Orders + GDPNow

This cluster directly drives:

• US yields and the front-end curve
• Fed pricing for 2026
• The dollar’s role as growth vs. carry currency

Scenarios to watch:

• Goldilocks: Claims stable, orders rebound, GDPNow unchanged near 3.9%
  – Supports soft landing, keeps VIX and FX vols low, gently bearish USD vs. high-carry and strong-growth currencies (AUD, NOK, selective EM).
• Growth scare: Claims tick higher, continuing claims jump, orders disappoint, GDPNow drops clearly below 3.5%
  – The market shifts from “comfortable easing” to “is the Fed behind the curve?”.
  – Equities wobble, VIX pops from mid-teens, USD initially gains on safe-haven flows, then may weaken if rate-cut expectations surge.

Given how cheap G7 FX vol currently is, the second scenario would trigger an outsized move in short-dated USD options.

2) ECB Signalling vs. Soft-Landing Europe

Lane and De Guindos speak into a backdrop where:

• Inflation has surprised slightly to the upside.
• Activity (PMIs) is improving, especially in services.

If they lean clearly hawkish—emphasising upside risks and pushing back on any early-cut narrative:

• Front-end euro rates could reprice higher.
• EUR might catch a bid vs. USD, JPY and CHF, especially if US data are benign.

If they sound relaxed—stressing that recent upside inflation surprises are “transitory” and that the big picture is still a cooling trend:

• Markets will treat this as another reason to sell volatility, and EUR may drift sideways, trading more on risk sentiment than on rates.

3) UK Growth vs. Inflation Persistence

The UK remains one of the more interesting “macro tension” stories:

• Activity: Construction and parts of real estate remain under heavy pressure (PMI in the mid-40s, well below 50).
• Inflation: BoE hawks like Mann keep warning that price pressures are more persistent than the central forecast assumes.

If Mann doubles down on the “inflation persistence” line:

• Rate markets may further price out early-cut scenarios.
• GBP could remain supported on the crosses (especially vs. EUR and JPY), but any sign that the market starts to price stagflation rather than simple persistence would be GBP-negative and vol-positive.

Trading Takeaways for Major FX

Putting all of this together:

• USD – Slightly asymmetric risk: downside in a growth scare (through aggressive cut pricing) but still the world’s first stop in risk-off moments. Tomorrow’s US data cluster is the main vol trigger of the day.
• EUR – Trades as a slow-beta cyclical. Hawkish ECB rhetoric can nudge it higher vs. USD and CHF, but big moves require either a US surprise or a shift in Europe’s growth outlook.
• GBP – Caught between weak construction and hawkish inflation rhetoric. Short-dated GBP vol is likely to stay richer than peers; EUR/GBP remains a clean expression of “who blinks first” on rate cuts.
• AUD – Supported by a still-healthy trade surplus and resilient domestic demand despite current-account deficits. Strong trade data reinforce AUD’s role as a quality carry in low-vol regimes.
• CAD – Vulnerable to weak trade and slowing domestic momentum. Even if Ivey PMI improves modestly, Canada is unlikely to be the hero of the day; CAD tends to underperform in any risk-off episode.
• SEK & CHF – More about confirming trends: ultra-low Swedish inflation and a slowly improving but still-weak Swiss manufacturing sector both support a mild shift away from defensive FX toward higher-beta Europe.

In short, Thursday is not about a single “big bang” release; it is about whether a string of medium-sized data points and central-bank comments collectively confirm or challenge the low-volatility, soft-landing consensus.

If they confirm it, carry and risk will keep grinding, and implied volatility will stay under pressure.

If they challenge it—especially via US growth signals—this quiet December Thursday could become the day that year-end volatility stops looking cheap and starts waking up.

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