NFP Preview : The last NFP release of 2025
- Market Analysis
Market Overview
This week is going to be quite busy, so timing is important. The NFP report is due on Tuesday, December 16, which is unusual because it’s normally published on the first Friday of each month. As we near the holidays, key data drops could coincide with the market’s slowdown, affecting reactions. Less participation means the market can get choppy with more ups and downs and not-so-smooth price changes.
NFP is definitely the big thing to watch, but it’s all about the details. There’s been some talk that the last payroll number might have been overstated—maybe by around 60K. If that’s true, it could mean this month’s numbers may come in lower than last month’s 119K.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) seems to be holding back right now, stuck in what’s called a daily inside bar—this usually suggests the market is getting ready for something big but is waiting for a signal. After Tuesday, Thursday will bring another wave of potential market moves: U.S. CPI, the Bank of England’s rate decision, and New Zealand’s GDP are all dropping on the same day. This mix can set the mood for the end of December, even if the real volatility doesn’t kick in until the second week of January.
Fundamental Factors
Right now, it seems like the market is pricing in a modest number (around 40K), but estimates can vary a lot (from about -20K to 110K). This wide range shows there’s a lot of uncertainty out there—and when that’s the case, surprises can really shake things up. Numbers outside that range could lead to some strong market moves.
The unemployment rate is another important factor. If job growth isn’t great and unemployment creeps up to 4.6%, that could put some pressure on the dollar. If there’s a strong jobs report (over 100K–110K) with unemployment around 4.3%, the dollar may rise, contradicting the “soft labor” trend traders are watching.
Then, we’ve got CPI to consider, which can either confirm or complicate the situation. If NFP turns out weak, just one CPI print might not be enough to change the vibe fully. But if we have weak NFP and lower inflation, it could make the bearish case for the USD even stronger.
Technical Analysis
The technical analysis of the dollar index reveals a clear bearish momentum, as indicated by the moving average crossover of the 50 and 21 periods to the downside. Currently, the market is consolidating within a daily inside bar pattern that has persisted since December 10th, with no significant breakouts observed. The breakout levels are identified at 98.40 on the higher side and 97.75 on the lower side. The week commenced with a bearish candle, accompanied by liquidity being absorbed around the 98.08 level. A notable support level exists near 97.80, which aligns with an order block identified on the H1 chart. However, no other significant technical indicators or patterns, such as an engulfing pattern, have been detected, suggesting the market may continue to trade within a range. It appears that traders are awaiting the release of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data before making decisive moves.
Conclusion
As we approach Tuesday, traders should see NFP as the key event for the week, with the unemployment rate acting as the deciding factor. Then, on Thursday, the CPI and central bank news could either support the initial move or make everyone rethink.