Gold Prices Surge to All-Time High Amid Tariffs, NFP

10/02/2025

Market Ovrview

Gold price marked fresh top above $2,890 on Monday as risk sentiment was deteriorated by Trump’s new tariff plans. A higher market uncertainty shows precious metal’s potential to find acceptance above the $2,900 area.President Trump’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on aluminum and steep imports has exacerbated US-China trade concerns as this could be the beginning of a broader trade war. The investors have started flowing towards gold being a safe-haven asset. Moreover, Trump’s policies have raised a concern that inflationary pressure could reemerge that may further bolster gold prices despite a modest uptick in the US dollar.

Fundamental Analysis

Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainties also support gold’s uptrend. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin said that there is no viable proposal to initiate peace talks with Ukraine. Moreover, US Vice President will visit Germany to highlight America’s latest stance.

The recent US NFP report showed a weaker number, adding 143k jobs in January which is below 170k expected. However, the impact was offset by an expected dip in unemployment rate to 4%. Fed officials have signaled a cautious optimism about future rate cuts. The BLS report: The change in total Nonfarm Payroll employment for November was revised up by 49,000, from +212,000 to +261,000, and the change for December was revised up by 51,000, from +256,000 to +307,000. With these revisions, employment in November and December combined is 100,000 higher than previously reported.Moving forward, Fed Chair’s speech and US CPI remain the limelight events this week. Any uptick in inflation may increase the demand for gold.

Technical Analysis

The gold’s 4-hour chart shows a strongly held uptrend, constantly maintaining above the 30-period SMA. However, the RSI remains near 70.0 which is an overbought level. It indicates that gold may find a corrective downside. The price could find resistance at $2,900 ahead of $2,950. On the flip side, $2,875 is the immediate support followed by $2,850 level. Moving below the level may urge sellers to test $2,832 area.