Gold Price Targets Ahead of Imminent Trade Tariff Implementation

27/03/2025

Market Overview

Gold prices have resumed their upward trajectory, supported by heightened geopolitical uncertainty surrounding global trade tensions. On Thursday, spot gold advanced as investors sought safe-haven assets amid renewed fears of retaliatory tariffs. The move followed President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% import tariff on cars and light trucks, set to take effect next week. These measures have intensified concerns about inflationary pressure and slowing global growth, with the April 2 deadline for reciprocal tariffs looming.

Investor sentiment has turned cautious, as market participants fear an escalation in the trade dispute could trigger broad-based economic disruption. Gold, traditionally a hedge against such volatility, has seen a resurgence in demand. Notably, prices briefly reached a high of $3,057 on March 20, and the current rebound suggests buyers are preparing to retest this level in the near term.

Technical Analysis

On the four-hour chart, gold remains within a gently ascending price channel, following a period of corrective consolidation. Buyers have regained control by pushing the price above the recent high of 3035.84, with immediate resistance now at 3042.28. This level also aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and the upper boundary of the channel, marking a significant confluence zone.

If momentum persists, the next bullish targets will be 3050.48, 3059.53, and 3074.17. However, the price path within the channel remains volatile, with intermittent pullbacks likely. As long as the channel holds, supports are seen at 3026.79 and 3012.15. A decisive break below 3012.15 would suggest a structural shift, invalidating the current bullish bias and signaling a potential exit from the upward channel.

Key Technical Levels

Resistances: 3042.28, 3050.48, 3059.53, 3074.17
Supports: 3026.79, 3012.15

Fundamental Drivers

As inflation concerns mount, investors are shifting toward gold as a defensive asset. Additionally, the anticipation of slower economic growth has reduced expectations for aggressive monetary tightening by central banks, which indirectly supports gold by lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.