Fed and SNB Rate Decisions Keep Markets on High Alert | Errante
Market Overview
Global financial markets are gearing up for major policy announcements from two influential central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB). While the Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady, the spotlight will be on its forward guidance and economic projections. Meanwhile, the SNB could lower its overnight rate by 25 basis points.
Fundamental Factors
One of the key factors influencing market sentiment is the Federal Reserve’s decision. While most analysts agree that the Fed will not adjust its funds rate—there’sonly a 4% chance of a change—market participants are still keenly eyeing the statement, the “dot plot” projections, and Jerome Powell’s press conference. These elements could provide crucial signals about the Fed’s future policy stance. A growing number of traders now anticipate up to three rate cuts by the end of 2025, indicating a shift toward a more dovish outlook compared to last month’s expectations.
On the Swiss front, the SNB is expected to announce a 25-basis-point rate cut, bringing its overnight rate down to 0.25%. The SNB has a history of surprising markets with dovish decisions, and if it does so again, it could trigger a significant drop in the USD/CHF exchange rate. This potential move comes as European economic growth shows resilience despite lingering uncertainty around global trade tariffs.
Additional factors that could impact USD/CHF this week are the upcoming U.S. retail sales data and the BoJ’s policy announcement. The retail sales report, set for release on Monday, will offer crucial insights into U.S. consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth. Meanwhile, the BoJ’s decision on Wednesday, alongside Japanese wage negotiations, could provide clues about Japan’s next policy moves and influence the yen’s trajectory in forex markets.
Technical Analysis
The recent price action in USD/CHF reflects a textbook “Power of Three” pattern, highlighting the market’s accumulation, manipulation, and distribution phases. On March 14, the H4 “mother bar” set a high at 0.8837, establishing a key level of accumulation as orders clustered around this range. The subsequent candle briefly swept above this level, reaching 0.8844, signaling a manipulation phase aimed at triggering stop orders and trapping breakout traders. However, price quickly retraced back into the mother bar’s range, marking the start of the distribution phase as directional momentum shifted. This formation completes the classic accumulation-manipulation-distribution cycle. Traders now face a critical juncture, as ongoing fundamental factors and market conditions will shape USD/CHF’s next move. Key levels to watch include 0.8837 and 0.8844; a breakout above may confirm bullish momentum, while a breakdown below could signal a bearish reversal. Continuation patterns within or outside this range will provide further clarity on the pair’s directional bias.
Conclusion
Week 12: March 16 to March 22, 2025 brings a mix of stability and potential surprises from central banks. While the Fed is likely to hold rates steady, traders are eager for hints on future policy directions, particularly in light of shifting expectations for rate cuts in the next couple of years. On the other hand, the SNB’s rate decision holds the prospect of more immediate market movement, particularly for the USD/CHF pair, as the Swiss bank has shown a tendency for dovish surprises in the past.
As market players evaluate these developments, they should also keep a close watch on supplementary factors like the U.S. retail sales report and the BoJ’s policy decisions. These events could collectively shape forex market dynamics in the coming days
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