
EUR/GBP Sellers Target Further Decline as Key Support Breaks
Market Overview
On Thursday, the EUR/GBP pair faced bearish pressure, falling as the market focused on the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. The market broadly expects the ECB to announce a 25-basis-point rate cut. Traders are watching for signals from President Christine Lagarde’s press conference, which may provide insights into the future pace of rate cuts. This sentiment has weighed on the euro, while the British pound is showing relative strength, especially in the wake of lower-than-expected inflation data for the UK and EU released on Wednesday and Thursday. Despite those inflation numbers, the Bank of England (BOE) is expected to closely monitor inflation within the services sector, as price pressures remain elevated.
Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart, EUR/GBP has breached a significant support level at 0.83558, signaling increased selling pressure. The breakout below this level has driven the pair to the first support at 0.83480, which aligns with the 1.618% Fibonacci extension from the recent upward swing. This zone could represent a key pivot area for the market, where either a temporary halt or a reversal of the downtrend might occur.
If sellers succeed in pushing the price further below 0.83480, the next downside targets lie at 0.83432, 0.83398, and ultimately 0.83354. These levels represent sequential areas where the price may find some buying interest, though overall bearish momentum remains in control.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 43.28, heading toward lower levels, which indicates continued selling strength and implies the potential for more downside. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has also turned negative, and both lines are sloping downward, confirming the intensifying bearish sentiment in the market.
Alternative Scenario
Conversely, if the EUR/GBP pair reverses and buyers are able to reclaim the resistance level at 0.83558, a recovery could be expected. In that case, the next target would be the previous peak at 0.83684. Such a move would indicate a potential weakening of selling interest, suggesting the possibility of a change in the current downward trajectory.
Key Levels Overview
Resistance Levels:
- Resistance 1: 0.83558
- Resistance 2: 0.83684
Current Price: 0.83510
Support Levels: - Support 1: 0.83480
- Support 2: 0.83432
- Support 3: 0.83398
- Support 4: 0.83354

Key Events to Watch
Data released on Thursday showed that eurozone inflation fell to 1.7% year-over-year in September, marking the lowest level since January 2022. This has strengthened the ECB’s resolve for a third rate cut this year. Looking ahead, Lagarde could signal the ECB’s readiness to act faster in reducing rates if economic conditions in the eurozone remain fragile. Traders should pay close attention to any differences in the pace of rate cuts between the ECB and the BOE, as this divergence could significantly affect the EUR/GBP pair’s direction.
Conclusion
EUR/GBP remains under pressure following the recent break below a crucial support level at 0.83558. The pair has set its sights on lower support areas, with bears appearing firmly in control. However, should buyers manage a recovery and breach 0.83558, the outlook could shift in favor of a potential correction to higher levels. All eyes will be on upcoming statements from Lagarde and other ECB officials, which could shape the near-term direction for the euro.