Errante’s The Week Ahead: 17 – 21 November 2025

Highlights of the Upcoming Week

• Fed December cut now a “coin toss”: markets price roughly 50–55% odds of another 25 bp cut at the 9–10 December FOMC; hawkish comments and the data blackout after the US shutdown keep volatility high in rates, equities and the dollar.
• Gold corrects from record highs: the metal has fallen roughly 11% from the October peak near $4,380 to trade just above the $4,000 handle as real yields hover around 4.1–4.2% and the dollar stabilises.
• Europe and UK inflation in focus: Euro area HICP and UK CPI/PPI for October are released mid-week and will shape expectations for ECB and BoE easing in 2026 – and therefore trends in EUR and GBP.
• US week closes with PMIs and housing: jobless claims, existing home sales and Friday’s global flash PMIs will tell us whether growth momentum is cooling into year-end, a key driver for US indices and the dollar.

What Now?

Fed uncertainty, US indices and the dollar

Markets are entering the week in a risk-off mood. Global equities have sold off as traders downgrade the probability of a December Fed cut from around 70% a week ago to roughly 50%.

The macro backdrop is unusually noisy. The government shutdown has delayed or partially crippled several key data releases, including October CPI and the full labour-market picture, leaving the Fed with a foggy dashboard. We still know that September core CPI slowed to 0.2% m/m and 3.0% y/y, confirming a gradual disinflation trend.

However, several FOMC members have publicly argued that, in the absence of clean data, it is safer to pause further easing until they see November numbers. Others, and most private-sector economists, still expect one more 25 bp cut in December as labour-market indicators soften.

For US indices, the implication is straightforward; if incoming high-frequency data (claims, PMIs, housing) show a clear cooling but not a collapse, the “Goldilocks” narrative can return: slower growth, softer inflation, and a Fed that cuts in December. That backdrop would allow the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to stabilise after this week’s tech-led drawdown. If data surprise on the strong side or Fed speakers continue to push back against a December move, real yields and the dollar can firm again, pressuring high-valuation growth stocks and pro-risk FX.

From an FX trader’s perspective, the key is to treat Fed expectations as a two-way risk:

• A decisive shift back above 60–65% odds of a December cut favours selling broad USD strength into resistance, particularly against currencies with improving domestic data (EUR on softer inflation, some EM FX).
• A further drop in cut probabilities toward 30–40% would support a deeper dollar squeeze higher and argue for staying cautious on outright USD shorts until DXY breaks its current uptrend.

Gold’s slide toward $4,000 – and what it means

Gold has given back part of its extraordinary 2025 rally. After setting record highs above $4,380/oz in mid-October, the metal has corrected roughly 11%, trading into the $4,000–4,100 region.

Behind the move we see that real US 10-year yields have stabilised around 4.1–4.2%, reducing the urgency to hold non-yielding assets. The dollar has stopped falling and is consolidating near recent highs, cutting some of the FX-translated upside in gold. Positioning had become crowded after the Q3 surge, so the current drop has a strong profit-taking component. Major banks still project medium-term targets between $4,200 and $5,600 as central-bank buying remains robust and de-dollarisation themes stay alive.

For traders, the message is that gold is in a corrective phase, not necessarily a structural top. In the short term, a further drift toward the $4,050–4,000 zone is feasible if DXY holds firm and real yields stay pinned. A renewed spike in Fed-cut expectations or a risk-off shock that hits equities harder than gold would quickly revive the squeeze higher.

In other words, gold is now trading as a leveraged expression of “Fed path × real yields,” rather than a simple one-way safe haven.

Euro area and EUR: inflation data as a credibility test

The euro area enters the week with headline HICP running around 2.1% y/y in October, slightly down from 2.2% in September, while core inflation is estimated near 2.4%.

On Tuesday, the full October HICP data and breakdown will be released. The direction is more important than the level; a further easing in goods prices and energy, combined with only mildly sticky services, reinforces the case for continued gradual ECB easing in 2026. Any upside surprise in services or core would challenge the current market pricing and could put a floor under EUR, especially against low-yielders.

For EUR traders, the key takeaway is that Europe is closer to price stability than the US, but growth remains weaker. That means rallies in EUR/USD are still likely to be capped unless US data deteriorate sharply. The HICP release is therefore a volatility event rather than a clear trend changer.

UK inflation and GBP: still above target, but drifting lower

UK CPI has been stuck at 3.8% y/y for three consecutive months, well above the BoE’s 2% target but far from the double-digit peaks of 2022–23.

The next CPI and PPI releases (covering October) arrive on Wednesday 19 November. Consensus expects a modest step down in headline inflation, driven by easing food prices and lower goods inflation, partly offset by sticky services. Markets are currently looking for the first BoE rate cut around February–March 2026, but a sharp downside surprise could pull those expectations forward.

GBP has traded more as a “relative growth and policy” currency than a pure risk proxy. Into the data, traders should watch EUR/GBP and GBP/USD:

• Softer-than-expected CPI combined with weak retail sales on Friday would argue for selling GBP on rallies, especially versus EUR and USD.
• A stubborn core print near 4% with resilient PMIs could trigger a short-covering bounce in GBP, as the BoE would look comparatively more hawkish than the ECB and Fed.

Market Events and Announcements (GMT+2)

Below are the main events that can move FX next week.

Monday, 17 November

• All day – Market holidays in Colombia, Mexico, Czech Republic, Argentina, Slovenia, Slovakia– liquidity in EM and CE3 FX may be thinner.
• 01:50 – Japan: GDP (QoQ, Q3) – key for JPY and global risk appetite relative to the prior 0.5% print.

Tuesday, 18 November

• All day – Market holidays in Morocco, Latvia, Oman, and Croatia – minor liquidity effects in local markets.

Wednesday, 19 November

• 09:00 – UK: CPI (YoY, Oct) – pivotal for BoE expectations and GBP, previous 3.8%.
• 12:00 – Euro area: CPI (YoY, Oct) – final read versus prior flash 2.1%/2.2%; key for ECB easing path and EUR.
• 17:30 – US: Crude Oil Inventories – important for oil, CAD and broader risk tone after prior 6.413M build.
• 21:00 – US: FOMC Meeting Minutes – the main event for USD, rates and US indices, offering colour on the December cut debate.

Thursday, 20 November

• 15:30 – US: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov) – regional growth gauge after -12.8 previously, watched for signs of industrial weakness.
• 17:00 – US: Existing Home Sales (Oct) – housing-demand signal; consensus in line with prior 4.06M.

Friday, 21 November

• 16:45 – US: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov, flash).
• 16:45 – US: S&P Global Services PMI (Nov, flash).
  These PMIs will shape the late-week narrative on US growth and can drive closing flows in USD and US indices.

This is a classic “data-heavy mid-week, sentiment-heavy Friday” structure. Expect volatility clusters around Wednesday morning (GBP, EUR) and late Friday (broad USD and indices).

Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch

1. DXY – Uptrend pausing below 3-month high

Current technical conditions and momentum

The DXY daily chart shows the dollar index in a constructive medium-term uptrend. Price has broken above the spring downtrend and is now consolidating between a 3-month high near 100.8–101 and support around 98.0–98.6. An ascending trendline from the 3.5-year low supports price just under 99.0–99.2.

PPO has rolled over but remains slightly above the zero line, suggesting a loss of upside momentum rather than a confirmed bearish reversal.

ROC has dipped marginally negative, consistent with consolidation after a strong run rather than trend exhaustion.

Main scenario (base case)

As long as DXY holds above the trendline and the 98.0–98.6 support band, the base case for the coming week is a sideways-to-higher range:

Expect dips toward 98.6–99.0 to attract buyers who are still hedging the risk of a “no cut in December” outcome.

A daily close back above 100.0 would likely reopen a test of the 100.8–101.0 resistance zone. A sustained break there would signal a continuation of the up-leg, with scope toward 101.5–102.0 over a multi-week horizon if US data hold up.

For FX traders, that argues for:

• Keeping a modest long-USD bias on pullbacks while 98.0 holds.
• Using DXY corrections to fine-tune entries in USD/CHF and USD/JPY, where technical structures are cleaner.

Alternative scenario

The risk case is a clean downside break:

• A decisive daily close below the trendline and 98.0 would signal that the market is re-embracing the “Fed cuts in December” narrative, potentially after softer PMIs or weaker US housing and claims.
• In that scenario, DXY could quickly unwind toward the mid-96s, where the prior 3.5-year low and horizontal support converge.

This alternative would favour EUR/USD and risk-sensitive EM FX, while supporting a rebound in gold from the $4,000 area.

2. USD/CHF – Bear channel intact, focus shifts to Fibonacci extensions

Current trend and momentum

The USD/CHF daily chart remains structurally bearish. Price is trending lower inside a well-defined descending linear regression channel that has contained price action for months. The recent test of the channel’s upper boundary near 0.8120 was rejected. The pair has now slipped back below the latest swing low around 0.7955, after failing at the 61.8% retracement zone near 0.8000–0.8010.

The 20-day WMA and the Bollinger mid-band are rolling over around 0.7990, reinforcing 0.8000 as a strong resistance “ceiling.”

Momentum indicators confirm the renewed downside: PPO has crossed down toward negative territory; ROC is below zero; RSI is sliding toward the mid-30s but not yet oversold, leaving room for further weakness.

Main scenario (downtrend continuation)

Within this framework, the base case is for USD/CHF to resume its march toward the lower half of the channel. As long as price stays below 0.8000–0.8050, rallies are sell opportunities. The first technical target is the 161.8% Fibonacci extension around 0.7800–0.7810.

A break below that zone opens the way toward the 200% extension near 0.7725 and then the 261.8% extension around 0.7600–0.7610.

Over a slightly longer horizon, if DXY suffers a deeper correction and risk sentiment remains fragile, the channel base suggests potential toward the 0.7400–0.7420 region (361.8% extension and channel support confluence).

Trading logic:

• Short bias below 0.8000, with tight risk above 0.8050, targeting first 0.7800 and then 0.7725.
• Given RSI is not yet deeply oversold, there is space for a directional push before a more durable bounce.

Key levels

• Resistance: 0.8000–0.8010 (61.8% retracement, 20-day WMA), then 0.8120 (channel top / 0% Fib).
• Support/targets: 0.7800, 0.7725, 0.7600, 0.7400.

Alternative scenario

The bearish view is invalidated if USD/CHF can reclaim and hold above the 0.8000–0.8050 area:

• A daily close back inside the upper Bollinger band with PPO turning higher would hint at a short squeeze, particularly if DXY breaks higher on renewed Fed-hawkish pricing.
• In that case, upside could extend toward 0.8120 (channel top) and, if broken, toward 0.8200 where prior horizontal resistance and a former congestion zone reside.

However, given the clear down-slope of the regression channel and the rejection at the recent swing high, this remains a lower-probability scenario for the week ahead.

How it all ties together

• A cautious Fed and fragile risk sentiment keep DXY in a consolidation phase, not yet a reversal.
• That environment favours structurally defensive currencies like CHF, especially against the dollar, where the technical damage is already visible.
• At the same time, the combination of gold’s correction and upcoming European and UK inflation data provides fertile ground for cross-market trades: USD/CHF shorts alongside selective long-gold or EUR trades if data and Fed rhetoric tilt dovish again.

In short, this week is less about single data points and more about how the mosaic of Fed uncertainty, European disinflation, UK inflation persistence and risk-asset volatility reshapes the market’s conviction on the December cut – and with it, the next leg for USD, EUR, CHF and gold.

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