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Bitcoin Faces Critical Support at $65K Amid Market Volatility

Bitcoin Faces Critical Support at $65K Amid Market Volatility

Date: Monday, June 17, 2024 

Monday Market Overview: 

The recent Federal Reserve decisions and a declining inflation trend, despite a strong labor market, have heightened risk appetite in financial markets, leading to new record highs in the Nasdaq. This typically correlates positively with high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. However, robust ETF inflows following a period of market volatility and ahead of key macroeconomic events are crucial for maintaining liquidity and Bitcoin price stability. Consequently, Bitcoin is currently correcting towards the crucial $65,000 support zone, a level vital for sustaining its bullish trend. 

Technical Analysis: 

On the daily chart, Bitcoin’s six-month uptrend remains intact, despite a corrective phase over the past three weeks. After two consecutive days of gains, Bitcoin encountered resistance at $66,535. This level could be interpreted as the neckline of a double top pattern, completed in last week’s trading. If sellers continue to defend this price barrier, the nearest support lies at $65,070, which aligns with Bitcoin’s six-month ascending trendline and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level. A clear and sustained break below this support would provide sufficient evidence for continued bearish momentum, potentially targeting $63,200 and $61,145. These targets correspond to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and the 200% swing level of the double top pattern, with the latter being the classic reversal pattern target. 

Alternative Scenario: 

Unless buyers can decisively break through the $66,535 resistance, the bearish scenario will likely persist. In such a case, the next resistance level to watch would be the 34-day moving average near the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement at $68,594. The higher resistance can be charted at the double top pattern’s peak at $71,925. 

Market Overview and Key Levels 

Resistance Levels: 

  • Resistance 3: 71,925 
  • Resistance 2: 68,594 
  • Resistance 1: 66,535 

Current Price (at the time of analysis): 66,151 

Support Levels: 

  • Support 1: 65,070 
  • Support 2: 63,200 
  • Support 3: 61,145 

Impactful Events: 

In the coming days, several key economic events will likely influence Bitcoin’s price dynamics. Notable among them are: 

  • Federal Reserve’s Updated Economic Projections: These will offer insights into policymakers’ outlook on the economy, providing clues on the future path of interest rates. 
  • Major Economic Reports: Such as CPI data, which will indicate inflation trends, and employment figures, impacting market sentiment towards risk assets. 

Oscillators and Risk Warnings: 

  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): Bearish, indicating prevailing selling pressure. 
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Bearish, supporting the downward trend. 
  • Moving Averages: Bearish, reflecting the recent negative price action. 

Conclusion: 

Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its price above the critical $65,000 support level is crucial for sustaining its long-term bullish trend amidst market volatility. A break below this level could signal further downside potential, targeting lower support levels. Conversely, a decisive move above the $66,535 resistance could halt the bearish scenario, with higher resistance levels coming into play. 

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