Bearish Targets for AUD/USD Amid Rising Selling Pressure
Market Overview
The Australian dollar continues to face downward pressure against the U.S. dollar as markets anticipate a slower pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. The renewed strength of the U.S. dollar, driven by this outlook, has exacerbated the selling momentum for AUD/USD. Meanwhile, traders remain cautious ahead of today’s Federal Reserve meeting and subsequent commentary from Chair Jerome Powell, which could provide critical insights into the central bank’s policy trajectory for the coming year.
Technical Analysis
In the four-hour chart, the AUD/USD pair maintains a clear downtrend initiated in early December. After a period of price consolidation, sellers regained control by decisively breaking below the previous key support level at 0.63364. This breach has reinforced bearish sentiment, paving the way for a move toward the immediate support at 0.62981.
A successful breakdown of this level could accelerate the pair’s descent, exposing further downside targets at 0.62792 and, eventually, 0.62438. The price is trading firmly below all major moving averages, further validating the bearish trend.
Oscillators Confirmations
Momentum indicators echo this sentiment, with the RSI remaining in bearish territory and the MACD histogram widening in negative zones, signaling sustained selling pressure.
Alternative Scenario
Conversely, a failure to breach 0.62981 could trigger a recovery. Buyers would need to reclaim resistance at 0.63364 to regain control, with a break above 0.63718 signaling a potential reversal in momentum and a shift toward bullish conditions.
Key Levels
- Resistance Levels: 0.63364, 0.63718, 0.64290
- Support Levels: 0.62981, 0.62792, 0.62438
Key Events to Watch
Today’s Federal Reserve meeting and Chair Powell’s subsequent remarks will likely shape the near-term trajectory for the U.S. dollar. Investors will be closely monitoring the updated outlook for monetary policy in 2025. Additionally, Thursday’s U.S. GDP report will provide further clarity on economic conditions, potentially influencing volatility across major currency pairs, including AUD/USD.
Conclusion
AUD/USD remains entrenched in a bearish trend, with key support at 0.62981 serving as the next critical level for sellers. A breakdown below this level could extend losses, while a reversal would require buyers to push the pair back above 0.63364. Upcoming economic events, particularly the Federal Reserve’s policy update, will play a decisive role in determining the pair’s direction.
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