AUD/NZD Struggles Near Key Support Amid Mixed Jobs Data

Market Overview

In subdued pre-holiday trade, the Australian dollar is under moderate pressure as the broader currency market follows the lead of the US dollar, which has seen a modest bid recovery. This shift reflects profit-taking among speculative traders who had heavily shorted the greenback in recent weeks.

Technical Analysis

On the 4-hour chart, AUD/NZD continues to operate within a broader downtrend and is now approaching a critical support zone near 1.07203, which coincides with the lower boundary of a Bollinger Band squeeze. Price action has narrowed significantly, indicating a potential breakout. Sellers appear to be testing this zone aggressively, aiming to invalidate the recent consolidation range. A sustained break below this technical floor could accelerate downside momentum toward 1.07010, followed by secondary supports at 1.06764 and 1.06492.

However, oscillators show a mixed picture. While RSI trends lower and remains in bearish territory, MACD currently flattens near the zero line, reflecting indecision. The 50- and 100-period moving averages continue to slope downward, reinforcing the underlying bearish structure.

If buyers manage to reclaim resistance at 1.07475 and breach the key ceiling at 1.07914, the bearish case would weaken, and a potential trend reversal could emerge.

Key Technical Levels

Resistances: 1.07475, 1.07914

Supports: 1.07010, 1.06764, 1.06492

Fundamental Drivers

Australia’s March employment data surprised to the upside, with a net increase of 32,200 jobs, partially offsetting February’s sharp decline. Importantly, the unemployment rate held steady at a historically low 4.1%. Nonetheless, the labour market’s resilience has not shifted RBA expectations significantly. Markets still price in a full 25 basis-point rate cut in May, reflecting concerns over global growth risks and lingering disinflation trends.

This cautious outlook limits the Australian dollar’s ability to recover materially, especially against the New Zealand dollar, which is supported by stable domestic inflation expectations and demand from China for commodity-linked currencies.

Conclusion

AUD/NZD remains at risk of further downside as sellers eye a break below 1.07203. A breach targets 1.06492, while only a rally above 1.07914 invalidates the bearish view.

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