AUD/JPY Buyers Confront Key Resistance to Sustain Uptrend

27/03/2025

Market Overview

AUD/JPY has continued its upward momentum, driven by renewed risk appetite and supportive macroeconomic expectations. Since the corrective dip earlier in March, the pair has established a steady climb, reflecting improved sentiment towards the Australian Dollar. Meanwhile, a subdued outlook for the Japanese Yen has added to the pair’s bullish tone.

Technical Analysis

On the four-hour chart, AUD/JPY has been trending higher since March 20, completing a corrective rebound and retesting the 34-period moving average. The pair is now challenging a critical resistance at 95.183, which also marks the weekly high. A successful breakout above this level could clear the path toward the next upside targets at 95.394, 95.661, and 95.957.

Short-term momentum indicators support further gains. RSI holds above 50, signalling bullish strength, while MACD bars remain in positive territory and are expanding, reflecting increased buying interest. However, failure to breach 95.183 could trigger a temporary pullback toward 94.887 or even 94.409, though the broader trend remains supportive of further upside.

Key Technical Levels

Resistances: 95.183, 95.394, 95.661, 95.957
Supports: 94.887, 94.409

Fundamental Drivers

The near-term direction for AUD/JPY hinges on two critical events: the RBA’s policy stance and Japan’s Tankan manufacturing survey. The RBA is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, which may stabilise the Aussie if the bank maintains a neutral tone. In contrast, a surprisingly weak Tankan index could pressure the Yen, fuelling further AUD/JPY upside. On the other hand, a strong reading could support the Yen and slow the pair’s advance.