AUD/CHF Buyers Face a Key Resistance Level Amid Short-Term Upside Momentum
Market Overview
The Australian dollar has gained short-term strength against the Swiss franc, supported by the postponement of U.S. tariff measures and a pullback in the U.S. dollar index. However, lower-than-expected quarterly inflation in Australia has kept price growth within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range, reinforcing expectations of an interest rate cut in Tuesday’s meeting. While this has moderated support for the AUD, risk-on sentiment has provided buying opportunities in the short term against the traditionally defensive Swiss franc.
Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart, AUD/CHF has entered a short-term upward trend, with buyers testing the resistance at 0.57360. A sustained breakout above this level would reinforce bullish momentum, paving the way for further gains. If buyers maintain control above this threshold, the next resistance levels are projected at 0.57401, 0.57454, 0.57512, and 0.57606.
Price action remains in the upper half of Bollinger Bands, while RSI and MACD have moved into the overbought zone, confirming buyer dominance. However, the risk of exhaustion increases at higher levels, making a potential rejection at resistance a key technical event to watch.
Should sellers defend 0.57360, a downside shift could emerge. A break below the support at 0.57208 would invalidate the bullish setup, signaling a possible trend reversal towards 0.57150.
Key Technical Levels
- Resistance Levels: 0.57360, 0.57401, 0.57454, 0.57512, 0.57606
- Support Levels: 0.57302, 0.57208
Fundamental Drivers
RBA Rate Decision: The RBA meeting on Tuesday is the primary event this week, with markets expecting a 25-basis-point rate cut to 4.10%. A rate reduction could cap AUD gains and introduce downside risks to AUD/CHF.
Swiss Industrial Production Data: Switzerland will release annual industrial production figures on Tuesday, which could influence CHF demand depending on whether growth meets or exceeds expectations.
Global Risk Sentiment: The postponement of U.S. tariffs has temporarily boosted risk appetite, benefiting the AUD. However, any shifts in market sentiment could influence the pair’s direction.
Conclusion
AUD/CHF remains bullish in the short term, with buyers attempting to break above 0.57360. A successful breakout could extend gains towards 0.57454 and 0.57512, while failure to hold above 0.57360 could lead to a pullback towards 0.57208. The RBA rate decision on Tuesday will be the most significant factor impacting further price action.
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