AUD/CAD Extends Losses After Bearish Triangle Breakdown

Market Overview

The Australian dollar continues to face significant downward pressure as concerns over escalating trade tariffs weigh on sentiment. Despite falling oil prices, which would typically weaken the Canadian dollar, AUD/CAD remains under firm control of sellers. Investors are positioning cautiously, reflecting global trade tensions and their impact on risk-sensitive currencies like the Aussie.

Technical Analysis

AUD/CAD has broken below an ascending triangle pattern on the one-hour chart, confirming a bearish continuation. Sellers have successfully pushed the pair below the 0.89824 support, reinforcing a negative short-term outlook.

The immediate downside target for sellers is 0.89751, a key support pivot. A sustained break below this level would expose 0.89659, followed by 0.89557, both of which align with previous demand zones. Momentum indicators suggest further selling pressure, as RSI remains in oversold territory, and MACD continues printing red bars, reflecting an active bearish trend.

For any potential recovery, buyers must reclaim 0.89824. A move above this level could trigger a corrective bounce toward 0.89926 and 0.90091, but such a move appears less likely unless broader sentiment shifts.

Key Technical Levels

• Resistance Levels: 0.89824, 0.89926, 0.90091
• Support Levels: 0.89751, 0.89659, 0.89557, 0.89392

Fundamental Drivers

Australian Dollar Pressured by Trade Uncertainty: Tariff-related concerns are impacting investor confidence, particularly for currencies linked to international trade.

Canadian Dollar Faces Mixed Catalysts: While lower oil prices typically weaken the Loonie, its resilience suggests underlying support, possibly from strong economic expectations.

Key Data Releases: Australia’s home loan data and Canada’s wholesale sales figures will be closely monitored for potential shifts in macroeconomic outlooks.

Conclusion

AUD/CAD remains firmly bearish, with further losses likely as long as the pair trades below 0.89824. A break below 0.89751 would reinforce negative sentiment, while any recovery requires a shift in risk appetite and stronger demand for the Aussie. Upcoming Australian and Canadian data releases will be key in shaping short-term direction.

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